RICS monitor: global calm masks a credit crunch in the making

The headline number from the latest RICS Global Commercial Property Monitor looks reassuring. The Commercial Property Sentiment Index fell just one point in Q1 2026, from -1 to -2, suggesting a market holding broadly steady. It isn't. Beneath the aggregate figure, credit conditions are deteriorating sharply across almost every market surveyed — and if history is any guide, investment demand will follow.

The scale of the credit move is striking. Of the 30 markets covered by the monitor, 28 reported a deterioration in lending conditions in Q1. The trigger is the ongoing war in Iran, which is pushing energy prices higher, stoking inflation fears and putting upward pressure on bond yields. Markets most exposed to energy price sensitivity recorded the sharpest moves: the UAE fell 91 points, Australia 85, Spain 67. In Europe, France fell 52 points, the UK 46, Italy 46. The pattern is nearly universal.