Rate stability arrives as German property markets eye recovery

The monetary policy waltz between Europe and America has entered a new phase. The European Central Bank held its key deposit rate at 2% in mid-September, marking a potential end to its aggressive easing cycle just as the Federal Reserve prepared to resume cutting rates - a complete reversal of positions that could reshape financing conditions across German real estate markets.

The ECB's decision to pause follows eight consecutive rate cuts since June 2024, an easing campaign that contrasts sharply with the Fed's reluctance to reduce borrowing costs. Now the two central banks appear poised to swap monetary policy places, with the Fed expected to cut rates for the first time this year while ECB officials signal their easing cycle may be complete.

"The disinflationary process is over," ECB President Christine Lagarde declared, suggesting the pandemic-era inflationary surge has largely passed. The central bank lifted its growth forecast for 2025 to 1.2% while nudging down 2026 projections to 1%, reflecting confidence despite 15% U.S. tariffs crimping European trade. Inflation is expected to average 2.1% this year before falling to 1.7% in 2026 - close to the ECB's 2% target.

For German real estate professionals, the pause creates a complex backdrop where policy certainty meets financing uncertainty. The average eurozone mortgage rate remained stable at 3.3%, but longer-term financing costs - critical for property investment - face different pressures as the ECB slowly reduces its bond portfolio holdings.

Expert opinion divided on rate outlook

German real estate finance experts remain split on whether the ECB's easing cycle has truly ended. Felix Schindler, Head of Research & Strategy at HIH Invest, believes the central bank is keeping options open for future moves.

"With its decision, the ECB is keeping all options open so that it can respond to the decisions of the US Federal Reserve on the one hand and to the data situation and economic policy conditions on the other in the course of the year," Schindler noted. "A further key interest rate cut before the end of the year remains possible, and the controversial discussions on this issue are likely to continue."

Francesco Fedele, CEO of BF.direkt, argues the ECB should maintain its current stance despite economic headwinds. "The ECB should continue to refrain from lowering key interest rates," Fedele stated. "If the markets are not clearly convinced that the ECB is determined to combat inflation, capital market participants could demand higher interest rates for long-term loans. This would be bad news, and not just for the real estate industry."

Fedele highlighted a critical concern for property investors: the ECB's gradual reduction of its government bond holdings. "Even though the capital markets are currently able to absorb this well thanks to the ECB's cautious approach, it tends to cause interest rates for long-term loans to rise," he explained.

Peter Axmann, Co-Head of Real Estate Clients at Hamburg Commercial Bank, sees potential for one more cut if economic conditions deteriorate. "If inflation stabilises at its current level and GDP growth slows noticeably due to lower US demand for European goods as a result of tariff increases, I consider a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December to be likely."

Real estate financing implications

The ECB's pause arrives as German property markets show tentative signs of recovery after two years of adjustment. Alexander Lackner, CEO of neworld, acknowledged the challenging environment while expressing cautious optimism.

"The current interest rate environment remains challenging for the industry. Project developments continue to be under pressure from high financing costs, and many market participants are still acting cautiously," Lackner observed. "Despite the uncertainties, however, we are confident that 2026 could be a turning point for the market."

For institutional investors, the rate stability provides a foundation for more reliable investment calculations. Axmann noted that "the relatively stable level of recent months will be maintained, with the risk of only a slight increase. The resulting reliability of financing costs is increasingly enabling serious investment calculations and should provide tailwind for the incipient market recovery."

Schindler emphasized that long-term rates matter more than ECB policy rates for real estate markets. "For the real estate and capital markets, developments at the long end of the yield curve are likely to be much more interesting in the coming months than the ECB's decisions on key interest rates."

The gap between ECB and Fed interest rates - currently more than 2 percentage points—has drawn significant attention. Markets expect this spread to narrow but not disappear, with the Fed potentially cutting to a 2.75%-3% range by next September while some analysts see the ECB dropping to 1.75% by late 2025.

President Trump's criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell over the ECB's aggressive easing has evolved into broader challenges to central bank independence, adding geopolitical complexity to monetary policy decisions. Trade uncertainty from U.S. tariffs creates additional complications for ECB policymakers, who must balance growth support against inflation risks.

The ECB's decision was unanimous, reflecting consensus among policymakers that current conditions warrant a wait-and-see approach. Lagarde noted that "trade uncertainty has clearly diminished" and risks to growth "appear to be more balanced," suggesting the central bank feels comfortable with its current position.

REFIRE: The ECB's rate pause signals a shift toward stability that German real estate investors have been waiting for. With financing costs no longer falling, the focus moves to longer-term borrowing rates—and these face upward pressure as the ECB reduces its bond purchases. The message is clear: if you're planning investments, don't expect cheaper money ahead. Instead, the relatively stable financing environment should make it easier to run the numbers and commit to deals. Any December rate cut would likely be the last, so this is probably as good as conditions get for the foreseeable future.