Property mood darkens again despite claims that pricing has stabilised

Deutsche Hypo's real estate climate index fell for the third consecutive month in February, dropping 3.2% to 90.6 points. The lender maintains that stabilised interest rates and functioning pricing mechanisms are laying the groundwork for recovery — yet sentiment continues to move the other way.

The February survey of approximately 1,000 real estate professionals showed declines across nearly all measures. The investment climate fell 3.7% to 88.8 points. The earnings climate dropped 2.5% to 92.5 points, its fourth consecutive monthly decline. A reading of 100 indicates confidence.

Retail recorded the sharpest fall, down 8.3% to 78.1 points. Logistics slipped 4.1% to 98.6, falling below the 100 mark for the first time in more than two years — a symbolic breach for what had been the market’s post-pandemic outperformer. Residential remains the strongest segment at 142.9 points but continues to ease, down 2.2%. Hotels fell a further 2.4% to 103.3 after January's 11.6% plunge. Office stood alone at 73.6 points — unchanged and still subdued.

If pricing were genuinely regaining traction across the market, the investment climate would be expected to stabilise rather than retreat. Instead, the survey suggests underwriting caution remains firmly embedded.

Fundamentals diverge from psychology

José Luis Calderón Martinez, Head of Central Acquisitions at Deutsche Hypo – NORD/LB Real Estate Finance, framed the results as psychological lag rather than structural deterioration.

“The German real estate market is in a phase of stabilisation with increasing signs of recovery,” he said. “Pricing is becoming more predictable again, which is facilitating transactions.”

Volumes remain below long-term averages, he acknowledged, but enabling conditions are improving. The renewed weakness in sentiment reflects geopolitical tensions, regulatory complexity around ESG and energy efficiency, and lengthening decision processes. “Market sentiment is not yet fully in step with this structural stabilisation,” he added.

The bank’s broader thesis is consistent: stable rates restore calculability; ESG-compliant assets in strong locations retain financeability; scarce new construction underpins quality stock. Investors focused on cash flows, location quality and transformability, Calderón Martinez argues, may find entry opportunities in what he describes as an early-cycle environment.

The bank's Sebastian Steigleder made a similar point in January, arguing that stable interest rates provide “a secure basis for calculations.” He pointed to the office market’s quality split as evidence that capital is already discriminating more sharply between sustainable assets in prime locations and weaker stock facing vacancy risk.

Which signal to trust

Three consecutive months of declining sentiment, with retail deteriorating sharply and logistics slipping back below the confidence threshold, suggest caution remains deeply embedded. The mood among professionals is not yet consistent with a market preparing for acceleration.

Deutsche Hypo’s position rests on observable fundamentals: stabilised rates, functioning price formation and constrained supply of modern space. The counterargument is that sentiment often turns before volumes do — and that persistent declines in earnings expectations may signal pressure still working through occupier markets and financing structures.

For investors prepared to accept longer review processes and selective deployment, current sentiment weakness may represent opportunity rather than warning. For others, the divergence between survey pessimism and lender optimism will justify continued restraint.

Industry gatherings such as Quo Vadis and the coming MIPIM may provide anecdotal colour. Capital deployment, not conference attendance, will determine whether recovery foundations translate into measurable momentum. For now, the gap between what sentiment surveys record and what lenders believe they see defines Germany’s property market entering Q2 2026.