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The logistics property market enters 2026 neither racing ahead nor stalling. Stabilisation is the working assumption, but two structural forces are already shifting the outlook: a renewed surge in e-commerce demand and the slow but significant emergence of defence logistics as a long-term occupier.
These themes dominated a recent RUECKERCONSULT briefing attended by REFIRE - “Between stabilisation and new growth drivers” - where GARBE Industrial, HIH Invest, Catella Investment Management and Metroplan described a sector that has absorbed the shocks of the past two years and is edging back toward predictability.
Core cost pressures are easing, though no one expects a return to pre-2020 conditions. Construction, land and financing costs have softened slightly; yields and rents have stabilised; and German vacancy remains low by international comparison. Only Berlin and Leipzig show meaningful slack after speculative overbuilding, while regions such as Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt and Stuttgart remain close to fully let.
“The occupancy rate in HIH Invest’s logistics segment is over 99%,” said Maximilian Tappert. “Even in challenging markets, we have managed to extend expiring contracts with existing tenants.” Catella’s Marten Helms reported similar results. “Despite a few insolvency-related losses, we have re-let around 50,000 square metres, mostly at rents above previous levels. Vacancy is not a price issue. It is a demand issue. Where users need space, we can achieve market-standard and in some cases rising rents.”
E-commerce is once again acting as a demand engine after the post-pandemic pause. Asian platforms are expanding rapidly across Europe and securing hub and distribution space, while established players have resumed their acquisition programmes. Much of this demand is structural rather than cyclical, and is already visible in several regions.
A second driver is emerging from Europe’s defence sector. GARBE Industrial estimates that defence-related logistics and industrial requirements could reach between 7.5 and 14.9 million square metres by 2030. “The market is still in its early stages,” said Tobias Kassner. “The first leases have been signed, but the lag between rising demand and response is greater than in other sectors. Defence will only become a noticeable driver from 2026 onwards.” Tappert added that HIH Invest has already signed leases with defence-sector companies, mainly for non-critical uses such as spare parts and materials logistics.
Energy supply has become the next constraint. With fleet electrification, automated operations and tenant expectations for abundant clean power, grid capacity has turned into a hard location factor. “Many existing properties do not have sufficient grid capacity for extensive charging infrastructure,” said Metroplan’s Manuel Schrapers. “Rapid grid expansion is essential if German logistics locations are to remain competitive.”
Schrapers also highlighted a shift that should concern German policymakers. Eastern European markets, particularly Poland, Czechia, Slovakia and Romania, are becoming increasingly attractive to global investors and industrial users. “This is not only due to lower costs,” he said. “It is the speed of administration, modern funding cultures and a genuine welcome for industrial settlement. Many regions also have a skilled workforce. These factors are influencing location decisions in favour of Eastern Europe.” Even so, Helms argued that Germany’s fundamentals remain strong. “Despite regional overcapacities, Germany is still an extremely attractive logistics location. We are seeing a renewed upturn in investor demand for properties with solid substance and strong location strengths. International users are securing space early to stabilise supply chains and expand their European footprint.”
Across the panel, the tone for 2026 was cautiously constructive. No one expects a macro-driven surge, but visibility is improving. “A slight upturn in transaction markets and the return of important demand groups point to a phase with greater planning security,” said Kassner. Tappert added that institutional investors are acting with more confidence. Pricing has stabilised and capital values show the first signs of turning. What is needed now are economic conditions that allow both users and investors to plan ahead.
The supply side remains the main risk. With completions depressed, any rebound in demand could create fresh bottlenecks, while Eastern Europe continues to offer faster approvals, cheaper land and political enthusiasm for industrial development.
For investors, the signal is straightforward. The cycle may be flat, but the fundamentals are firm. Modern space in established corridors is absorbed quickly, e-commerce is accelerating again, and defence logistics is creating a demand layer that did not exist two years ago. The real dividing line now lies in specification and infrastructure. Power capacity, automation readiness and resilience to supply-chain shocks will define which assets remain fit for purpose. In 2026, the risk is not weak rents but holding buildings that no longer meet the operational needs of the next generation of logistics users.
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